Clear Title of Arizona is pleased to provide its clients with the Clear Connections Monthly Market Update. This report will provide you with the latest real estate trends.

Our business is built around the concept of educating and providing the personal service that Real Estate Agents and Lenders have come to depend upon. It is with this philosophy that we offer the Cromford Report to our clients, associates and friends.  It is intended to keep you informed on critical market trends that affect our businesses.

Market Summary

On the surface the preliminary numbers for October suggest it was quite similar to September. Looking at the ARMLS data across all areas and types we see the following:

Sales per Month: 7,556 in October - down 7% from September but up 16% from this time last year.
Active Listings (including AWC): 27,063 on November 1 - up 0.7% from October 1 but down 40% from this time last year.
Active Listings (excluding AWC): 19,578 on November 1 - up 1.3% from October 1 but down 50% from this time last year.
Pending Sales: 10,509 on November 1, down 3% from October 1, but up 9% compared with this time last year.
Listing Success Rate: 75.9% on November 1 - down slightly from 76.2% on October 1 but up significantly from 56.1% on November 1, 2010.
Contract Ratio: 91.9 on November 1, down from 95.1 on October 1 but up from 39.4 last year at this time.
Days Inventory: 98 on November 1, the same as October 1 but dramatically down from 184 at this time last year
Cromford Market Index™: 156.0 on November 1, down from 159.4 on October 1 and 87.9 on November 1, 2010.
Sales Price as a Percentage of List: 96.70% on November 1, almost the same as 96.84% on October 1 but up from 95.21% on November 1, 2010

Just like in October, we can see that all these numbers are far better than 12 months ago but most are not quite as good as the previous month. Supply rose very slightly while demand declined slightly.

However the overall figures hide some spectacular difference between the geographic areas. For example, when it comes to active listings (including AWC), there was little overall change when averaged across all areas and types (up 0.7%), but the following cities increased their supply of single family detached homes far more than average:

• Rio Verde (up 34%)
• Fountain Hills (up 20%)
• Gold Canyon (up 19%)
• Sun City West (up 18%)
• Sun City (up 15%)
• Avondale (up 14%)
• Waddell (up 12%)
• Sun Lakes (up 10%)
• Surprise (up 9%)
• Anthem (up 7%)
• Scottsdale (up 6%)

The following had significant falls in active single family detached listing counts:

• Youngtown (down 5%)
• Queen Creek (down 6%)
• Tempe (down 8%)
• Apache Junction (down 9%)
• Tonopah (down 12%)
• Laveen (down 13%)

We have emphasized many times that changes in the balance of supply versus demand take a long time to be reflected in changes to pricing. This is illustrated by the latest numbers. The supply increased and demand fell during October, yet pricing made the most positive move it has done for at least 15 months, driven by the large reduction in supply over the last 12 months:

average active listing $/SF - up 2.3% to $139.98 per sq. ft.
average pending listing $/SF - up 1.8% to $79.65 per sq. ft.
average monthly sales $/SF - up 1.1% to $80.95 per sq. ft.

Again, the overall average numbers hide discrepancies between different segments of the market. The specific price movements for the different price ranges are:



We can see that there were no price ranges hitting new lows last month. Below $150,000 recent pricing tends look healthy and on a strong upward trend. Above this point the picture is rather mixed. All but 5 ranges are showing price appreciation for the last 12 months. So why does the overall market number not show price appreciation? The reason is that the sales volume has decreased in the upper ranges so the more expensive homes make less contribution to the overall mix, driving the overall average down.

Maricopa County Foreclosures
New notices were down 4% to 4,354 in October. Trustee sales were down 17% to 2,364 the lowest number since March 2008. Sales to third parties were 1,125 leaving only 1,239 going back to the lenders - the lowest total since October 2007.

EO inventory is down to 10,451 almost exactly half of what it was 12 months ago.

Daily Market Snapshot - Concise

 Explanation of Terminology

ST = SHORT TERM TREND - The arrows in this column indicate the direction of the change between TODAY and LAST MTH
LT = LONG TERM TREND - The arrows in this column indicate the direction of the change between TODAY and LAST YR
Color code: The background to the trend arrow is colored green if the direction is favorable for sellers and is colored red if the direction is favorable for buyers. It is colored yellow if the change was zero. If the circle is white then then the statistic is neutral for both buyers and sellers.
Columns: Each data column shows measurements taken on a single day with the date shown at the top of the column.
TODAY means the date given at the top of the page.
LAST MTH means the same date last month.
LAST QTR means the same date three months ago.
LAST YR means the same date one year ago.
2 YRS AGO means the same date two years ago.

City Rankings - Annual Average Sales Price per Square Foot

This table ranks the cities by their annual average sales price per square foot. Only single family detached homes are included in these numbers. Information for the 12 major and 17 secondary cities is current as of the date shown. Data for the 14 small cities is updated on a monthly basis, and is measured on the 13th of each month.

The primary function of this table is to show the least and most affordable areas in the Phoenix metropolitan area together with longer term pricing trends.

Annual averages are based on a relatively large number of sales. Therefore they are not as subject to rapid change as monthly averages. The downside is that they do not necessarily represent the current market very accurately, since they include sales from up to a year ago. Pricing may have moved a great deal since then.

Note that Higley has been included in Gilbert and Ahwatukee included in Phoenix. Desert Hills is still counted separately though it is increasingly being incorporated into Phoenix.

Explanation of Terminology
All statistics are for single family detached homes recorded on ARMLS as sold in the city shown.

 Daily Market Snapshot - Pre-foreclosure/Short Sales

The table below provides a statistical analysis of today’s residential resale market for short sales and pre-foreclosures in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

To be included in this analysis the property must not be lender owned, and must either be in pre-foreclosure or classified as a short sale.
The figures shown are for the Greater Phoenix area. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, a large part of Pinal county and a small part of Yavapai county. “Out of area” listings recorded on ARMLS are not included.

All residential single-family dwelling types recognized by ARMLS are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land, commercial units and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

Foreclosures - Per Month

The following line chart shows the number of notices and trustee deeds on a monthly basis from 2002 onwards.

The data is for the county of Maricopa and includes all real estate property types, including land and commercial. A commercial parcel counts as 1 foreclosure even if there are multiple structures within that parcel.

The red line denotes notices of trustee sales which is the first formal notification that the lender  has asked the trustee to start the foreclosure process. The blue line denotes the foreclosure auctions where the property is either sold to a third party or transferred to the beneficiary (lender).

 As an added feature, Clear Title Agency of Arizona will also begin providing to our readers, the Stat Plus Report. This report focuses on the average Days on Market (DOM) and Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) in the first quarter of 2011 (Q1) for single family residential housing at various price points in the flexmls system.

The monthly STAT newsletter addresses DOM and MSI for the entire residential market as a barometer of overall market health. It is a macro look at these two key metrics, and does not, however, give any insight into inherent differ-ences between various price ranges. STAT+ will allow Subscribers to address market supply more in depth with Buyers and Sellers. STAT+ was first published in the fourth quarter (Q4)2010.